Sunak faces ‘Brexit-like’ struggle to get Rwanda bill done, as Tories warned not to bring him down

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Rishi Sunak has been warned he faces an uphill battle to get his landmark Rwanda legislation through parliament – a struggle reminiscent of Theresa May’s fight with a bitterly divided Conservative Party over Brexit.

No 10 is sticking to its guns by refusing to make any major changes to the deportation bill – but right-wing Tory MPs are urging the PM to “sit down and listen” to demands to toughen the bill or face a potential leadership challenge.

Mr Sunak was advised against the idea of calling a snap general election early next year if his bill gets stuck in parliament. The Tory leader was warned that it would backfire and destroy the party’s slim hopes of holding on to power.

Fresh headaches came as it emerged that an official legal assessment for the government gives the bill only a “50 per cent at best” chance of getting flights off the ground.

And Robert Jenrick – who quit as immigration minister this week – raised the stakes by accusing Mr Sunak of failing to keep his word, and calling for Britain to quit the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).

The hardliner insisted Mr Sunak’s bill would fail in a stinging op-ed. Mr Jenrick told the Tories it was now time for the UK to “extricate” itself from “international frameworks”, or face the “red-hot fury” of voters.

Mr Sunak is fighting to convince Conservative MPs – on both wings of the party – not to rebel in Tuesday’s crunch vote as he seeks to pass legislation in response to the Supreme Court ruling against the Rwanda scheme.

Dozens of MPs on the right want Mr Sunak to go further by opting out of the ECHR. They are also angry that asylum seekers will be able to lodge legal challenges against deportations based on individual circumstances.

The hardline faction – including members of the 35-strong New Conservatives, the Common Sense Group and the European Research Group – are locked in discussions about legal advice from its “star chamber” this weekend.

However, in a relief for No 10, The Independent understands they are more likely to try to amend the bill and delay a decision on whether to vote it down until January, rather than defy the PM this Tuesday.

One senior Tory on the right said it was more likely that hardline MPs would focus on trying to change Mr Sunak’s mind at the committee stage, and delay a decision over any radical move to vote against the government until the showdown third reading.

The right-wing MP said Mr Sunak must “sit down and listen” to those who say the bill will fail to get flights moving. They said: “The prime minister has been badly advised. If he sticks to the middle way and tries to do a bit of both things, you end up with something that achieves nothing – you can’t be a little bit pregnant.”

They added: “I don’t think it will fail at this stage [on Tuesday] – it’s a question of in what form the legislation takes. We have to make changes.”

A source in the Tories’ One Nation wing – which boasts support from around 100 MPs – said they would wait until Monday before setting out their issues in detail. Ex-solicitor general Lord Garnier – advising the group – has already called the bill “political nonsense and legal nonsense”.

Despite the brewing rebellions, Mr Sunak is refusing to consider any big changes to the bill, which disapplies the Human Rights Act, and tries to limit blocking orders from the European court in Strasbourg.

A government source said the bill was “as tough as it can be within the limits of international law”. The source said No 10 would consider amendments – but made clear that “substantively this is the bill that will allow us to get flights off to Rwanda in the spring”.

Gavin Barwell, Ms May’s former chief of staff at No 10, told Times Radio that it feels “all a bit Brexit”. He added: “You’ve got these two wings of the party and it’s very difficult to see where the landing zone is.”

Senior Tory Robert Hayward warned Mr Sunak against trying to call a general election early next year if his bill gets stuck. The influential elections expert also compared the row with Ms May’s Brexit woes between 2016 and 2019.

Lord Hayward told The Independent: “One-issue elections don’t work. Theresa May thought she was onto a winner with that on Brexit in 2017, and the whole thing fell apart.”

The top peer warned right-wing rebels away from a push against Mr Sunak’s leadership, adding: “You’d have to be pretty unaware to believe you could change the leader again and not incur the wrath of the public.”

In an ominous warning for Mr Sunak, sacked home secretary Suella Braverman backed Mr Jenrick’s op-ed for The Telegraph. She said her former colleague “knows the detail”, adding: “It is very concerning that he can’t defend the bill.”

Adding to pressure on the PM to consider potential Tory voters, Ms Braverman tweeted: “What do we say to them when we pass another law that fails?”

Fellow right-winger Simon Clarke, a former minister under Liz Truss, tweeted: “Nothing less than a paradigm shift will change a situation that is unsustainable for so many reasons – not least that the public won’t tolerate it.”

Cabinet minister Victoria Prentis, the attorney general, has been told that the bill leaves a significant risk of the European court blocking flights, The Times first reported.

The official advice – giving the plan only a 50-50 chance of success from the government’s legal department – was said to have been signed off by top lawyer Sir James Eadie.

One source backed up the report, while another sought to argue the advice was just one of the opinions the government had sought. Not disputing the advice, a government official said: “We do not comment on or share government legal advice and it would be very wrong for anyone recently departing government to do so.”

Sir Iain Duncan Smith urged Tory MPs to pass a bill that “get those flights off to Rwanda” – stopping short of an endorsement for it in its current form. The ex-Tory leader told The Telegraph: “The reality is that we are in a more febrile state than under John Major.”

Dominic Raab, the former justice secretary, said MPs “should back the bill, rather than let the best be the enemy of the good” – urging rebels to “tighten up” the legislation at the committee stage rather than vote it down on Tuesday.

Ministers have been calling round MPs in a desperate bid to get backing for the first hurdle on Tuesday. Tory deputy chair Rachel Maclean has suggested the showdown will amount to a vote of confidence in the government.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats claimed that Mr Sunak must be investigated over whether he breached the ministerial code by failing to declare an extra £100m payment to Rwanda for the deportation scheme.

The party said it was “outrageous” that the payment – sent to Kigali in April on top of the £140m already paid – was only revealed in a letter to MPs sent by the Home Office’s top civil servant, Sir Matthew Rycroft, on Thursday. Mr Rycroft will be grilled by the public accounts select committee on Monday.

The Home Office is set to publish an evidence pack next week that will reportedly reject a claim from the UNHCR – the UN’s refugee agency – that Rwanda is an unsafe country.