The killing of Hamas’ second-in-command risks wider war in the Middle East

The death of Saleh al-Arouri in what was described as a “surgical strike” deep in southern Beirut bears all the hallmarks of an assassination signed off and carried out by Israel. Mr Arouri was not only the number two in the political leadership of Hamas, but a founder and commander of its military wing and the link, it was reported, between Hamas and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. As such, he was a key figure.

Israel has not so far, and may never, admit responsibility for the killing of Mr Arouri, who is the most senior Hamas leader known to have been killed since Israel’s prime minister vowed to “destroy Hamas”, following the attacks of 7 October. But the answers to all the standard questions point incontrovertibly in Israel’s direction: who had the motivation, the intelligence and the military capability to do the deed? Above all, who stands to benefit from his death?

The answer to the last question, however, may not be quite as unequivocal as it might appear. As seen from the protests that broke out immediately in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, the death of Mr Arouri – and of the five others who died with him – could rebound on Israel, which has already been fighting longer and at greater cost than it had surely envisaged. In particular, it could further damage any chances Israel may still have of securing the return of the remaining hostages held by Hamas.