Mapped: Areas of England with the highest risk of dying from cancer

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Large regional variations in the risk of death from cancer by the age of 80 have been revealed in research by Imperial College London based on NHS data for England.

Analysis of the figures by The Independent shows the risk of dying is highest in northern England cities, while men and women living in the London boroughs had the lowest chance.

Although the risk of dying from cancer has decreased across all areas of England in the last two decades, it is now the leading cause of death in England, having overtaken cardiovascular diseases.

The Less Survivable Cancers Taskforce has that warned Britain has some of the worst cancer survival rates among the world’s wealthiest countries. It ranked the UK 28th out of 33 countries for five-year survival rate for stomach and lung cancer; for pancreatic cancer the UK was 26th, and it was 25th for brain cancer.

Two interactive maps below show the probability of men and women dying from cancer before 80, for each local council area in England. Lighter shades indicate the areas with the lowest risk, and darker colours show the local councils where people are most likely to die.

The risk of dying from cancer has declined for both sexes from 2002-2019, from one in six to one in eight for women and from one in five to one in six for men.

However, some regions had a larger decline than others, with cancer still killing one in six women in Manchester, compared to one in ten in Westminster.

Meanwhile, one in five men in Manchester are dying from the disease, and one in eight in the London borough of Harrow.

Women in Knowsley, Merseyside, and men in Manchester, had triple the risk of death from lung cancer than those in Waverley or Guildford in Surrey.

Overall, the London boroughs achieved the largest declines.

The highest mortality rates were recorded Liverpool, Manchester, Hull and Newcastle, and in coastal areas east of London.

The risk of dying did not decrease for all types of cancer. Pancreatic cancer mortality increased for men and women in all areas bar one, and the risk of dying from liver cancer among men and from endometrial cancer among women increased in all districts.

The scientists from Imperial said mortality risk was associated with poverty for both sexes, and the greatest inequality across regions was for cancers with risk factors such as smoking, alcohol and obesity, and for those which could be prevented or detected early by screening.

According to the researchers, the findings highlight stark inequalities across the country and an urgent need to strengthen national and local public health and screening programmes.

A report last month by Macmillan Cancer Support found more than 60,000 with cancer would live an extra six months or more if key diagnosis and treatment targets were met.

The NHS says 96% of cancer patients should receive treatment within one month of being diagnosed or informed. Last week, The Independent revealed no NHS trust met this target in October 2023.

Professor Majid Ezzati, senior author of the study and Professor of Global Environmental Health at Imperial College London, said: “Although our study brings the good news that the overall risk of dying from cancer has decreased across all English districts in the last 20 years, it also highlights the astounding inequality in cancer deaths in different districts around England.”

Theo Rashid, first author at Imperial College London, said: “The greatest inequality across districts was for the risk of dying from cancers where factors such as smoking, alcohol and obesity have a large influence on the risk of getting cancer. Due to funding cuts, many local authorities have reduced their budgets for smoking cessation since 2010. Our data shows we cannot afford to lose these public health programmes and are in urgent need of the reintroduction and strengthening of national and local policies which combat smoking and alcohol.”

An NHS England spokesperson said: “Cancer survival has never been higher, and the NHS continues to accelerate new ways to improve survival rates for all cancers, including those which internationally have been hardest to detect and treat early.

“Catching cancers earlier saves lives, and our community lung health checks have now diagnosed over 3,000 cancers – three quarters at stage 1 or 2, compared to a third historically.

“People can help NHS staff to diagnose cancer earlier by contacting their GP if they are concerned about something which may be a symptom of cancer.”